Detailed_results_20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061.txt Tue Apr 16 22:14:38 UTC 2024 >> file 2024-04-14_2_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2024-04-16T1916Z.txt exists and has 59 lines, 59 datalines >> There are 50 data_rows and 2 cmes/m_groups >> Using CR2283, Lon 201, and Startdate 2024-04-16 >> iswatag is 20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061 (1. 1st CME ID in control file) >> CME Spacecraft Start Image Date Start Image Type End Image Date End Image Type >> 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 (1) SOHO 2024-04-14T12:00:00Z C2 2024-04-14T12:48:00Z C2 >> 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001 (2) STEREO-A 2024-04-15T07:23:25Z COR2 Beacon 2024-04-15T08:09:05Z COR2 Beacon >> Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the last link is a stack plot showing the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled velocity, magnetic field, density, and temperature. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth=24 Number_of_miss_Earth= 0 Percentage_hits_Earth=100.00% Earliest 2024-04-16T17:15 Average 2024-04-17T01:09 Latest 2024-04-17T07:52 Kp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max = 4 4 6 Kp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max= 6 6 8 Kp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max= 6 7 8 Kp_all_min,Kp_all_avg,Kp_all_max= 4 6 8 Kp_all_weighted min, avg, max = 4 4 8 Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all= 0.48 0.59 0.46 1.08 ====Kp90,135,180 probability of occurrence histogram (%) 0 0 0 21 75 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 46 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 79 13 0 ====Kp all clock angles (equal weights) 0 0 0 7 25 21 42 6 0 ====Kp all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1) 0 0 0 5 19 28 43 5 0 Kp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ========================================================================================== ....................................... FLOATING POINT ................................... Kp_90fp_min,Kp_90fp_avg,Kp_90fp_max = 4.1 4.8 5.9 Kp_135fp_min,Kp_135fp_avg,Kp_135fp_max= 5.7 6.5 7.6 Kp_180fp_min,Kp_180fp_avg,Kp_180fp_max= 6.2 7.0 8.0 Kp_allfp_min,Kp_allfp_avg,Kp_allfp_max= 4.1 6.1 8.0 Kp_allfp_weighted min, avg, max = 4.1 5.0 8.0 Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all fp = 0.41 0.44 0.42 1.03 ====kp90,135,180 FP probability of occurrence histogram (%) 0 0 0 75 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 71 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 46 4 0 ====Kp FP all clock angles (equal weights) 0 0 0 25 13 40 21 1 0 ====Kp FP all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1) 0 0 0 19 13 48 20 1 0 Kp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ========================================================================================== Duration_min= 19.3 h Duration_avg= 38.0 h Duration_max= 53.7 h Standard deviation=14.8 h mp_standoff_min= 5.2 Re mp_standoff_avg= 5.8 Re mp_standoff_max= 6.2 Re Standard deviation= 0.2 Re Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 2024-04-17T01:12 5 6 7 5.8 52.0 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif ===========================other locations=============================== Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz= 0 Number_of_miss_Spitz=24 Percentage_hits_Spitz= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Spitzer or the impact is weak Median input arrival 2024-04-18T22:05 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Spitz_stack.gif STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA=24 Number_of_miss_STA= 0 Percentage_hits_STA=100.00% Earliest 2024-04-16T16:10 Average 2024-04-17T01:26 Latest 2024-04-17T08:22 Median input arrival 2024-04-17T01:27 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_STA_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_Stereo_A_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_Stereo_A_tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_Stereo_A_tim-pdyn.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_STA.gif STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=24 Percentage_hits_STB= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_STB_stack.gif Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 0 Number_of_miss_Mars=24 Percentage_hits_Mars= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Mars or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Mars_stack.gif ======================================= ### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth) .... Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2024-04-16T16:10Z and 2024-04-17T08:22Z (average arrival 2024-04-17T01:26Z) for 100% of simulations. Additionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-04-16T17:15Z and 2024-04-17T07:52Z (average arrival 2024-04-17T01:09Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 95% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-7 range (below minor to strong). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_STA_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/Detailed_results_20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061.txt ### ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=2) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) FP Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2024-04-14T14:31','2024-04-15T10:55 13.,9. -19.,-10. 34.,40. 633.,783. C 2024-04-17T07:52 4 6 6 4.13 5.72 6.23 6.2 20.8 2 2024-04-14T14:04','2024-04-15T10:21 12.,4. -18.,-7. 34.,32. 680.,727. C 2024-04-17T05:17 4 6 6 4.30 5.91 6.43 6.1 21.6 3 2024-04-14T13:50','2024-04-15T11:17 11.,10. -17.,-10. 34.,39. 707.,701. C 2024-04-17T03:47 4 6 7 4.42 6.06 6.57 6.0 52.4 4 2024-04-14T12:40','2024-04-15T11:33 8.,13. -13.,-12. 34.,40. 883.,670. C 2024-04-16T20:03 5 7 7 4.99 6.69 7.19 5.7 23.8 5 2024-04-14T14:30','2024-04-15T10:52 10.,6. -19.,-10. 45.,36. 699.,724. C 2024-04-17T02:38 5 7 7 5.21 6.93 7.42 5.6 48.4 6 2024-04-14T14:17','2024-04-15T10:53 10.,6. -18.,-10. 45.,37. 726.,707. C 2024-04-17T01:12 5 7 8 5.32 7.04 7.52 5.5 53.3 7 2024-04-14T13:08','2024-04-15T10:16 6.,4. -14.,-8. 45.,33. 907.,792. C 2024-04-16T17:15 6 8 8 5.91 7.60 8.04 5.2 23.8 8 2024-04-14T14:42','2024-04-15T10:26 3.,10. -26.,-7. 40.,34. 684.,838. C 2024-04-17T04:34 5 6 7 4.72 6.40 6.91 5.9 19.3 9 2024-04-14T14:21','2024-04-15T10:41 8.,6. -23.,-10. 34.,33. 743.,688. C 2024-04-17T03:42 4 6 7 4.36 5.99 6.50 6.1 51.7 10 2024-04-14T13:57','2024-04-15T10:03 7.,2. -22.,-5. 34.,33. 798.,799. C 2024-04-17T01:07 5 6 7 4.53 6.18 6.70 6.0 22.3 11 2024-04-14T13:46','2024-04-15T10:28 6.,5. -21.,-11. 34.,35. 829.,771. C 2024-04-16T23:41 5 6 7 4.65 6.32 6.83 5.9 52.0 12 2024-04-14T14:38','2024-04-15T10:55 9.,4. -23.,-8. 42.,36. 772.,754. C 2024-04-17T00:38 5 7 7 5.08 6.79 7.28 5.7 50.0 13 2024-04-14T14:16','2024-04-15T11:08 8.,9. -21.,-10. 42.,34. 829.,662. C 2024-04-16T21:58 5 7 7 5.30 7.01 7.50 5.5 23.4 14 2024-04-14T14:05','2024-04-15T10:37 7.,7. -20.,-7. 42.,32. 861.,766. C 2024-04-16T20:33 5 7 8 5.42 7.13 7.61 5.5 23.6 15 2024-04-14T14:35','2024-04-15T10:58 14.,9. -18.,-12. 36.,38. 738.,734. C 2024-04-17T03:23 5 6 7 4.50 6.16 6.67 6.0 48.4 16 2024-04-14T14:12','2024-04-15T10:48 13.,5. -17.,-9. 36.,37. 793.,736. C 2024-04-17T00:47 5 6 7 4.68 6.36 6.87 5.9 52.5 17 2024-04-14T14:00','2024-04-15T10:52 12.,9. -16.,-12. 36.,35. 824.,718. C 2024-04-16T23:17 5 7 7 4.81 6.50 7.01 5.8 23.6 18 2024-04-14T14:48','2024-04-15T10:19 2.,5. -20.,-10. 34.,33. 859.,753. H 2024-04-16T23:05 5 7 7 4.88 6.58 7.08 5.8 53.7 19 2024-04-14T14:26','2024-04-15T10:37 6.,2. -15.,-11. 29.,38. 910.,781. H 2024-04-16T22:48 5 6 7 4.61 6.28 6.79 5.9 53.0 20 2024-04-14T15:18','2024-04-15T10:56 4.,8. -20.,-11. 36.,36. 772.,734. H 2024-04-17T01:55 5 7 7 4.85 6.55 7.05 5.8 50.5 21 2024-04-14T15:30','2024-04-15T11:10 6.,14. -21.,-16. 36.,37. 744.,729. H 2024-04-17T03:21 5 6 7 4.72 6.40 6.91 5.9 50.7 22 2024-04-14T15:21','2024-04-15T10:09 7.,3. -19.,-10. 37.,35. 772.,832. H 2024-04-17T01:51 5 7 7 4.90 6.60 7.10 5.7 21.6 23 2024-04-14T15:10','2024-04-15T10:39 5.,6. -20.,-9. 32.,35. 772.,750. H 2024-04-17T03:09 4 6 7 4.49 6.14 6.65 6.0 22.3 24 2024-04-14T15:27','2024-04-15T11:04 4.,11. -21.,-7. 37.,37. 770.,741. H 2024-04-17T02:00 5 7 7 4.89 6.59 7.09 5.8 49.9 25 2024-04-14T14:23','2024-04-15T10:50 7.,6. -19.,-10. 36.,35. 772.,739. M 2024-04-17T01:12 5 6 7 4.89 6.59 7.09 5.8 52.0 ========== Spitzer table (NCMES=2) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2024-04-14T14:31','2024-04-15T10:55 13.,9. -19.,-10. 34.,40. 633.,783. C 2 2024-04-14T14:04','2024-04-15T10:21 12.,4. -18.,-7. 34.,32. 680.,727. C 3 2024-04-14T13:50','2024-04-15T11:17 11.,10. -17.,-10. 34.,39. 707.,701. C 4 2024-04-14T12:40','2024-04-15T11:33 8.,13. -13.,-12. 34.,40. 883.,670. C 5 2024-04-14T14:30','2024-04-15T10:52 10.,6. -19.,-10. 45.,36. 699.,724. C 6 2024-04-14T14:17','2024-04-15T10:53 10.,6. -18.,-10. 45.,37. 726.,707. C 7 2024-04-14T13:08','2024-04-15T10:16 6.,4. -14.,-8. 45.,33. 907.,792. C 8 2024-04-14T14:42','2024-04-15T10:26 3.,10. -26.,-7. 40.,34. 684.,838. C 9 2024-04-14T14:21','2024-04-15T10:41 8.,6. -23.,-10. 34.,33. 743.,688. C 10 2024-04-14T13:57','2024-04-15T10:03 7.,2. -22.,-5. 34.,33. 798.,799. C 11 2024-04-14T13:46','2024-04-15T10:28 6.,5. -21.,-11. 34.,35. 829.,771. C 12 2024-04-14T14:38','2024-04-15T10:55 9.,4. -23.,-8. 42.,36. 772.,754. C 13 2024-04-14T14:16','2024-04-15T11:08 8.,9. -21.,-10. 42.,34. 829.,662. C 14 2024-04-14T14:05','2024-04-15T10:37 7.,7. -20.,-7. 42.,32. 861.,766. C 15 2024-04-14T14:35','2024-04-15T10:58 14.,9. -18.,-12. 36.,38. 738.,734. C 16 2024-04-14T14:12','2024-04-15T10:48 13.,5. -17.,-9. 36.,37. 793.,736. C 17 2024-04-14T14:00','2024-04-15T10:52 12.,9. -16.,-12. 36.,35. 824.,718. C 18 2024-04-14T14:48','2024-04-15T10:19 2.,5. -20.,-10. 34.,33. 859.,753. H 19 2024-04-14T14:26','2024-04-15T10:37 6.,2. -15.,-11. 29.,38. 910.,781. H 20 2024-04-14T15:18','2024-04-15T10:56 4.,8. -20.,-11. 36.,36. 772.,734. H 21 2024-04-14T15:30','2024-04-15T11:10 6.,14. -21.,-16. 36.,37. 744.,729. H 22 2024-04-14T15:21','2024-04-15T10:09 7.,3. -19.,-10. 37.,35. 772.,832. H 23 2024-04-14T15:10','2024-04-15T10:39 5.,6. -20.,-9. 32.,35. 772.,750. H 24 2024-04-14T15:27','2024-04-15T11:04 4.,11. -21.,-7. 37.,37. 770.,741. H 25 2024-04-14T14:23','2024-04-15T10:50 7.,6. -19.,-10. 36.,35. 772.,739. M 2024-04-18T22:05 ========== STEREO A table (NCMES=2) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2024-04-14T14:31','2024-04-15T10:55 13.,9. -19.,-10. 34.,40. 633.,783. C 2024-04-17T08:22 2 2024-04-14T14:04','2024-04-15T10:21 12.,4. -18.,-7. 34.,32. 680.,727. C 2024-04-17T05:47 3 2024-04-14T13:50','2024-04-15T11:17 11.,10. -17.,-10. 34.,39. 707.,701. C 2024-04-17T04:12 4 2024-04-14T12:40','2024-04-15T11:33 8.,13. -13.,-12. 34.,40. 883.,670. C 2024-04-16T19:53 5 2024-04-14T14:30','2024-04-15T10:52 10.,6. -19.,-10. 45.,36. 699.,724. C 2024-04-17T01:43 6 2024-04-14T14:17','2024-04-15T10:53 10.,6. -18.,-10. 45.,37. 726.,707. C 2024-04-17T00:13 7 2024-04-14T13:08','2024-04-15T10:16 6.,4. -14.,-8. 45.,33. 907.,792. C 2024-04-16T16:10 8 2024-04-14T14:42','2024-04-15T10:26 3.,10. -26.,-7. 40.,34. 684.,838. C 2024-04-17T04:59 9 2024-04-14T14:21','2024-04-15T10:41 8.,6. -23.,-10. 34.,33. 743.,688. C 2024-04-17T05:07 10 2024-04-14T13:57','2024-04-15T10:03 7.,2. -22.,-5. 34.,33. 798.,799. C 2024-04-17T02:27 11 2024-04-14T13:46','2024-04-15T10:28 6.,5. -21.,-11. 34.,35. 829.,771. C 2024-04-17T00:51 12 2024-04-14T14:38','2024-04-15T10:55 9.,4. -23.,-8. 42.,36. 772.,754. C 2024-04-17T00:33 13 2024-04-14T14:16','2024-04-15T11:08 8.,9. -21.,-10. 42.,34. 829.,662. C 2024-04-16T21:43 14 2024-04-14T14:05','2024-04-15T10:37 7.,7. -20.,-7. 42.,32. 861.,766. C 2024-04-16T20:13 15 2024-04-14T14:35','2024-04-15T10:58 14.,9. -18.,-12. 36.,38. 738.,734. C 2024-04-17T03:43 16 2024-04-14T14:12','2024-04-15T10:48 13.,5. -17.,-9. 36.,37. 793.,736. C 2024-04-17T01:02 17 2024-04-14T14:00','2024-04-15T10:52 12.,9. -16.,-12. 36.,35. 824.,718. C 2024-04-16T23:22 18 2024-04-14T14:48','2024-04-15T10:19 2.,5. -20.,-10. 34.,33. 859.,753. H 2024-04-16T23:55 19 2024-04-14T14:26','2024-04-15T10:37 6.,2. -15.,-11. 29.,38. 910.,781. H 2024-04-16T23:53 20 2024-04-14T15:18','2024-04-15T10:56 4.,8. -20.,-11. 36.,36. 772.,734. H 2024-04-17T02:15 21 2024-04-14T15:30','2024-04-15T11:10 6.,14. -21.,-16. 36.,37. 744.,729. H 2024-04-17T03:50 22 2024-04-14T15:21','2024-04-15T10:09 7.,3. -19.,-10. 37.,35. 772.,832. H 2024-04-17T01:51 23 2024-04-14T15:10','2024-04-15T10:39 5.,6. -20.,-9. 32.,35. 772.,750. H 2024-04-17T04:19 24 2024-04-14T15:27','2024-04-15T11:04 4.,11. -21.,-7. 37.,37. 770.,741. H 2024-04-17T02:20 25 2024-04-14T14:23','2024-04-15T10:50 7.,6. -19.,-10. 36.,35. 772.,739. M 2024-04-17T01:27 ========== STEREO B table (NCMES=2) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2024-04-14T14:31','2024-04-15T10:55 13.,9. -19.,-10. 34.,40. 633.,783. C 2 2024-04-14T14:04','2024-04-15T10:21 12.,4. -18.,-7. 34.,32. 680.,727. C 3 2024-04-14T13:50','2024-04-15T11:17 11.,10. -17.,-10. 34.,39. 707.,701. C 4 2024-04-14T12:40','2024-04-15T11:33 8.,13. -13.,-12. 34.,40. 883.,670. C 5 2024-04-14T14:30','2024-04-15T10:52 10.,6. -19.,-10. 45.,36. 699.,724. C 6 2024-04-14T14:17','2024-04-15T10:53 10.,6. -18.,-10. 45.,37. 726.,707. C 7 2024-04-14T13:08','2024-04-15T10:16 6.,4. -14.,-8. 45.,33. 907.,792. C 8 2024-04-14T14:42','2024-04-15T10:26 3.,10. -26.,-7. 40.,34. 684.,838. C 9 2024-04-14T14:21','2024-04-15T10:41 8.,6. -23.,-10. 34.,33. 743.,688. C 10 2024-04-14T13:57','2024-04-15T10:03 7.,2. -22.,-5. 34.,33. 798.,799. C 11 2024-04-14T13:46','2024-04-15T10:28 6.,5. -21.,-11. 34.,35. 829.,771. C 12 2024-04-14T14:38','2024-04-15T10:55 9.,4. -23.,-8. 42.,36. 772.,754. C 13 2024-04-14T14:16','2024-04-15T11:08 8.,9. -21.,-10. 42.,34. 829.,662. C 14 2024-04-14T14:05','2024-04-15T10:37 7.,7. -20.,-7. 42.,32. 861.,766. C 15 2024-04-14T14:35','2024-04-15T10:58 14.,9. -18.,-12. 36.,38. 738.,734. C 16 2024-04-14T14:12','2024-04-15T10:48 13.,5. -17.,-9. 36.,37. 793.,736. C 17 2024-04-14T14:00','2024-04-15T10:52 12.,9. -16.,-12. 36.,35. 824.,718. C 18 2024-04-14T14:48','2024-04-15T10:19 2.,5. -20.,-10. 34.,33. 859.,753. H 19 2024-04-14T14:26','2024-04-15T10:37 6.,2. -15.,-11. 29.,38. 910.,781. H 20 2024-04-14T15:18','2024-04-15T10:56 4.,8. -20.,-11. 36.,36. 772.,734. H 21 2024-04-14T15:30','2024-04-15T11:10 6.,14. -21.,-16. 36.,37. 744.,729. H 22 2024-04-14T15:21','2024-04-15T10:09 7.,3. -19.,-10. 37.,35. 772.,832. H 23 2024-04-14T15:10','2024-04-15T10:39 5.,6. -20.,-9. 32.,35. 772.,750. H 24 2024-04-14T15:27','2024-04-15T11:04 4.,11. -21.,-7. 37.,37. 770.,741. H 25 2024-04-14T14:23','2024-04-15T10:50 7.,6. -19.,-10. 36.,35. 772.,739. M ========== Mars table (NCMES=2) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2024-04-14T14:31','2024-04-15T10:55 13.,9. -19.,-10. 34.,40. 633.,783. C 2 2024-04-14T14:04','2024-04-15T10:21 12.,4. -18.,-7. 34.,32. 680.,727. C 3 2024-04-14T13:50','2024-04-15T11:17 11.,10. -17.,-10. 34.,39. 707.,701. C 4 2024-04-14T12:40','2024-04-15T11:33 8.,13. -13.,-12. 34.,40. 883.,670. C 5 2024-04-14T14:30','2024-04-15T10:52 10.,6. -19.,-10. 45.,36. 699.,724. C 6 2024-04-14T14:17','2024-04-15T10:53 10.,6. -18.,-10. 45.,37. 726.,707. C 7 2024-04-14T13:08','2024-04-15T10:16 6.,4. -14.,-8. 45.,33. 907.,792. C 8 2024-04-14T14:42','2024-04-15T10:26 3.,10. -26.,-7. 40.,34. 684.,838. C 9 2024-04-14T14:21','2024-04-15T10:41 8.,6. -23.,-10. 34.,33. 743.,688. C 10 2024-04-14T13:57','2024-04-15T10:03 7.,2. -22.,-5. 34.,33. 798.,799. C 11 2024-04-14T13:46','2024-04-15T10:28 6.,5. -21.,-11. 34.,35. 829.,771. C 12 2024-04-14T14:38','2024-04-15T10:55 9.,4. -23.,-8. 42.,36. 772.,754. C 13 2024-04-14T14:16','2024-04-15T11:08 8.,9. -21.,-10. 42.,34. 829.,662. C 14 2024-04-14T14:05','2024-04-15T10:37 7.,7. -20.,-7. 42.,32. 861.,766. C 15 2024-04-14T14:35','2024-04-15T10:58 14.,9. -18.,-12. 36.,38. 738.,734. C 16 2024-04-14T14:12','2024-04-15T10:48 13.,5. -17.,-9. 36.,37. 793.,736. C 17 2024-04-14T14:00','2024-04-15T10:52 12.,9. -16.,-12. 36.,35. 824.,718. C 18 2024-04-14T14:48','2024-04-15T10:19 2.,5. -20.,-10. 34.,33. 859.,753. H 19 2024-04-14T14:26','2024-04-15T10:37 6.,2. -15.,-11. 29.,38. 910.,781. H 20 2024-04-14T15:18','2024-04-15T10:56 4.,8. -20.,-11. 36.,36. 772.,734. H 21 2024-04-14T15:30','2024-04-15T11:10 6.,14. -21.,-16. 36.,37. 744.,729. H 22 2024-04-14T15:21','2024-04-15T10:09 7.,3. -19.,-10. 37.,35. 772.,832. H 23 2024-04-14T15:10','2024-04-15T10:39 5.,6. -20.,-9. 32.,35. 772.,750. H 24 2024-04-14T15:27','2024-04-15T11:04 4.,11. -21.,-7. 37.,37. 770.,741. H 25 2024-04-14T14:23','2024-04-15T10:50 7.,6. -19.,-10. 36.,35. 772.,739. M ========== MERCURY table (NCMES=2) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2024-04-14T14:31','2024-04-15T10:55 13.,9. -19.,-10. 34.,40. 633.,783. C 2024-04-16T05:52 2 2024-04-14T14:04','2024-04-15T10:21 12.,4. -18.,-7. 34.,32. 680.,727. C 2024-04-16T05:31 3 2024-04-14T13:50','2024-04-15T11:17 11.,10. -17.,-10. 34.,39. 707.,701. C 2024-04-16T07:15 4 2024-04-14T12:40','2024-04-15T11:33 8.,13. -13.,-12. 34.,40. 883.,670. C 2024-04-16T00:15 5 2024-04-14T14:30','2024-04-15T10:52 10.,6. -19.,-10. 45.,36. 699.,724. C 2024-04-16T05:46 6 2024-04-14T14:17','2024-04-15T10:53 10.,6. -18.,-10. 45.,37. 726.,707. C 2024-04-16T05:06 7 2024-04-14T13:08','2024-04-15T10:16 6.,4. -14.,-8. 45.,33. 907.,792. C 2024-04-16T01:02 8 2024-04-14T14:42','2024-04-15T10:26 3.,10. -26.,-7. 40.,34. 684.,838. C 2024-04-16T04:28 9 2024-04-14T14:21','2024-04-15T10:41 8.,6. -23.,-10. 34.,33. 743.,688. C 2024-04-16T06:46 10 2024-04-14T13:57','2024-04-15T10:03 7.,2. -22.,-5. 34.,33. 798.,799. C 2024-04-16T04:01 11 2024-04-14T13:46','2024-04-15T10:28 6.,5. -21.,-11. 34.,35. 829.,771. C 2024-04-16T05:19 12 2024-04-14T14:38','2024-04-15T10:55 9.,4. -23.,-8. 42.,36. 772.,754. C 2024-04-16T04:17 13 2024-04-14T14:16','2024-04-15T11:08 8.,9. -21.,-10. 42.,34. 829.,662. C 2024-04-16T02:46 14 2024-04-14T14:05','2024-04-15T10:37 7.,7. -20.,-7. 42.,32. 861.,766. C 2024-04-16T02:06 15 2024-04-14T14:35','2024-04-15T10:58 14.,9. -18.,-12. 36.,38. 738.,734. C 2024-04-16T05:27 16 2024-04-14T14:12','2024-04-15T10:48 13.,5. -17.,-9. 36.,37. 793.,736. C 2024-04-16T03:46 17 2024-04-14T14:00','2024-04-15T10:52 12.,9. -16.,-12. 36.,35. 824.,718. C 2024-04-16T02:45 18 2024-04-14T14:48','2024-04-15T10:19 2.,5. -20.,-10. 34.,33. 859.,753. H 2024-04-16T03:13 19 2024-04-14T14:26','2024-04-15T10:37 6.,2. -15.,-11. 29.,38. 910.,781. H 2024-04-16T05:21 20 2024-04-14T15:18','2024-04-15T10:56 4.,8. -20.,-11. 36.,36. 772.,734. H 2024-04-16T04:53 21 2024-04-14T15:30','2024-04-15T11:10 6.,14. -21.,-16. 36.,37. 744.,729. H 2024-04-16T05:49 22 2024-04-14T15:21','2024-04-15T10:09 7.,3. -19.,-10. 37.,35. 772.,832. H 2024-04-16T03:59 23 2024-04-14T15:10','2024-04-15T10:39 5.,6. -20.,-9. 32.,35. 772.,750. H 2024-04-16T05:28 24 2024-04-14T15:27','2024-04-15T11:04 4.,11. -21.,-7. 37.,37. 770.,741. H 2024-04-16T05:04 25 2024-04-14T14:23','2024-04-15T10:50 7.,6. -19.,-10. 36.,35. 772.,739. M 2024-04-16T03:56 MERCURY: Number_of_hits_Mess=24 Number_of_miss_Mess= 0 Percentage_hits_Mess=100.00% Earliest 2024-04-16T00:15 Average 2024-04-16T04:25 Latest 2024-04-16T07:15 Median input arrival 2024-04-16T03:56 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_arrival_Mess.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Mess_stack.gif ========== Venus table (NCMES=2) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2024-04-14T14:31','2024-04-15T10:55 13.,9. -19.,-10. 34.,40. 633.,783. C 2 2024-04-14T14:04','2024-04-15T10:21 12.,4. -18.,-7. 34.,32. 680.,727. C 3 2024-04-14T13:50','2024-04-15T11:17 11.,10. -17.,-10. 34.,39. 707.,701. C 4 2024-04-14T12:40','2024-04-15T11:33 8.,13. -13.,-12. 34.,40. 883.,670. C 5 2024-04-14T14:30','2024-04-15T10:52 10.,6. -19.,-10. 45.,36. 699.,724. C 6 2024-04-14T14:17','2024-04-15T10:53 10.,6. -18.,-10. 45.,37. 726.,707. C 7 2024-04-14T13:08','2024-04-15T10:16 6.,4. -14.,-8. 45.,33. 907.,792. C 8 2024-04-14T14:42','2024-04-15T10:26 3.,10. -26.,-7. 40.,34. 684.,838. C 9 2024-04-14T14:21','2024-04-15T10:41 8.,6. -23.,-10. 34.,33. 743.,688. C 10 2024-04-14T13:57','2024-04-15T10:03 7.,2. -22.,-5. 34.,33. 798.,799. C 11 2024-04-14T13:46','2024-04-15T10:28 6.,5. -21.,-11. 34.,35. 829.,771. C 12 2024-04-14T14:38','2024-04-15T10:55 9.,4. -23.,-8. 42.,36. 772.,754. C 13 2024-04-14T14:16','2024-04-15T11:08 8.,9. -21.,-10. 42.,34. 829.,662. C 14 2024-04-14T14:05','2024-04-15T10:37 7.,7. -20.,-7. 42.,32. 861.,766. C 15 2024-04-14T14:35','2024-04-15T10:58 14.,9. -18.,-12. 36.,38. 738.,734. C 16 2024-04-14T14:12','2024-04-15T10:48 13.,5. -17.,-9. 36.,37. 793.,736. C 17 2024-04-14T14:00','2024-04-15T10:52 12.,9. -16.,-12. 36.,35. 824.,718. C 18 2024-04-14T14:48','2024-04-15T10:19 2.,5. -20.,-10. 34.,33. 859.,753. H 19 2024-04-14T14:26','2024-04-15T10:37 6.,2. -15.,-11. 29.,38. 910.,781. H 20 2024-04-14T15:18','2024-04-15T10:56 4.,8. -20.,-11. 36.,36. 772.,734. H 21 2024-04-14T15:30','2024-04-15T11:10 6.,14. -21.,-16. 36.,37. 744.,729. H 22 2024-04-14T15:21','2024-04-15T10:09 7.,3. -19.,-10. 37.,35. 772.,832. H 23 2024-04-14T15:10','2024-04-15T10:39 5.,6. -20.,-9. 32.,35. 772.,750. H 24 2024-04-14T15:27','2024-04-15T11:04 4.,11. -21.,-7. 37.,37. 770.,741. H 25 2024-04-14T14:23','2024-04-15T10:50 7.,6. -19.,-10. 36.,35. 772.,739. M Venus: Number_of_hits_Venus= 0 Number_of_miss_Venus=24 Percentage_hits_Venus= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Venus or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-04-16_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061/20240414_111200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA061_Venus_stack.gif