:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 09 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N30E35) produced a
C1.0 flare at 1503Z. Several B-class flares were observed prior to
the C-flare. Region 1040 has grown during the past 24 hours and is a
10-spot Cri-beta group with an area of approximately 70 millionths.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1040.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first two days (10-11 January). Quiet,
with isolated unsettled levels, are expected on day three (12
January) as a coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 082
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  084/086/088
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  005/005-005/005-006/006
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01