:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 10 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N30E18)
produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region
1040 continued to grow during the past 24 hours and is classified as
a Eao-beta group with 15 spots and an area of approximately of 130
millionths.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1040.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (11 January). Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels, are expected on day two (12 January) as a coronal
hole moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels,
with a slight chance for active levels, are expected on day three
(13 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 084
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  086/088/088
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-007/007-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01