:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 12 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1040 (N28W04) produced
a C1.1 flare at 1320Z along with numerous B-class flares.  Region
1040 showed little change in areal coverage (300 millionths) and was
classified as an Eao-beta group with 25 spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There is a slight chance Region 1040 could produce an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a slight chance for isolated
unsettled periods on day one (13 January) due to the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet conditions are expected for
days two and three (14-15 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 093
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 093/093/090
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01