:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 14 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1040 (N28W30) has been stable and is classified as
a Eki-beta group with 24 spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (15-17 January).
There is a slight chance that Region 1040 will produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next two days (15-16
January) .On day three (17 January), quiet to unsettled levels are
expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 090
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  089/087/085
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01