:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 15 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1040 (N29W41) produced two long duration flares, a
B8.1 flare 14/2139Z and a C1.3 flare at 15/0841Z. Region 1040 has
remained stable and is classified as a Eki-beta with 16 spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels for the next 24 hours. B-class flares and
isolated C-class flares are expected. There is a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (16 January). On day
two (17 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due to the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (18
January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects
subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 085
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  085/084/082
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/05
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/05
Minor storm           01/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01