:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 17 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N30W74)
produced two flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these
was a B6.1 at 17/2025Z. Region 1040 continued to slowly decay as it
neared the west limb, while retaining its beta configuration. A
flare and subsequent EUVI wave was observed near the southeast limb
on STEREO-B EUVI imagery at 17/0356Z. SOHO EIT C2 imagery showed a
CME off the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares remain possible, as well as a
slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels
possible at high latitudes, as a coronal hole high-speed stream
moves into a geoeffective position late on day one (18 January) and
continuing into day two (19 January). Quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (20).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    10/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 083
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  083/083/080
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  006/007-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01