:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 18 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N26W83) produced a
C2.1 flare at 17/2233Z. An uncorrelated C4.9 flare occurred at
18/2039Z. Region 1040 was classified early today as a Dho-beta group
with four spots. Sunspot observations decayed as Region 1040
continued to rotate off the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible. There remains a
slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on day one (19 January). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions at high latitudes,
are expected on day 2 (20 January) as a coronal hole moves into a
geoeffective position. Predominantly quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (21 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 082
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  082/082/082
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  005/005-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/05
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01