:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 19 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. The new region rotating on
to the east limb (new Region 1041, near S27) produced an M2.3 flare
at 19/1341Z and an M1.7 flare at 19/2035Z, as well as three
C-flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Occasional C-class flares are expected. Isolated
M-class flares are likely.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels at
high latitudes, on day one (20 January) due to a coronal hole
high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return on days two
and three (21-22 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 084
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  084/084/084
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01