:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 21 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1041 (S21E61) produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C4 at 21/0120Z. Region 1041 also produced a long
duration B4 flare at 21/1733Z. Region 1041 has remained stable and
is classified as a Cao-beta with 7 spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active conditions at high latitudes. The effects of the
co-rotating interaction region have subsided and data from the ACE
spacecraft indicate we are currently in a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (22-24
January).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 083
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  084/085/085
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01