:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 04 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 1060 (N24E58) was assigned
today and appears to be a small bipolar region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class event during
the next three days (05-07 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. However, there
was an isolated active period at mid-latitudes from 0600-0900Z which
was accompanied by storm level activity at some high latitude
stations. Solar wind speed observed by the ACE spacecraft were
elevated throughout the day, typically between 460-540 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with a chance for unsettled periods for the
first day (05 April) and partway through the second day (06 April).
An increase to mostly unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods is expected sometime late on the second day or early on the
third day (07 April) in response to a favorably positioned coronal
hole. Yesterdays halo CME appears to be primarily directed south of
the ecliptic plane. However, it is possible that the flank of the
CME could contribute to somewhat elevated activity on the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 079
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  005/007-007/010-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/35
Minor storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/30/40
Minor storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10