:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 08 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 1060 (N25E00)
produced a B3 flare at 08/0325Z with an associated EIT wave and a
earth directed full halo CME.  SOHO C2 imagery observed a second CME
at 08/1030Z located along a filament channel in the northeast
quadrant of the disk.  This CME is not expected to become
geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance of a C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. 
Observations from the ACE spacecraft show continued influence from
the coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speeds have averaged
600 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations ranging from -4/+4 nT.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
very high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (09 April).  Days two
and three (10-11 April) are expected to be predominately quiet, as
the high speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 076
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/01/01
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/01/01
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01