:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 09 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Although spotless, Region
1060 (N25W13) did produce a B3/sf event at 09/0455Z. Region 1061
(N13W69) continues to decay and is currently a H-type spot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The solar wind
observed at the ACE spacecraft indicates a continued decline in
solar wind speed averaging 440 km/s.  The greater than 2MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (10-11 April).  Quiet to
unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected for
day three (12 April).  This activity is expected due to the full
halo CME observed on 08 April.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 076
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/01/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/01/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01