:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 13 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A single B-class flare
was observed at 0443Z from Region 1062 (S18W20).  Region 1062 has
grown in size but is still a small bipolar sunspot group.  A
filament eruption with an associated partial-halo CME (plane-of-sky
speed 540 km/s) was observed on the northwest limb at approximately
0908Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (14-16 April) with a slight chance for
an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for days one and two (14-15 April). 
Activity is expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for an
active period on day three (16 April) due to the arrival of the
partial-halo CME observed today.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 075
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  077/077/079
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/35
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05