:Product: 0417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 17 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible solar disk
remained spotless.  A long duration B2.1 X-ray event was observed at
17/0557Z.  The possible source region of this event was from an area
of surging on the east limb near N25 as observed in GOES-14 SXI
imagery.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominately very low levels.  A slight chance for C-class
activity exists as the new area of interest on the NE limb rotates
onto the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 April)
due to a geoeffective coronal hole wind stream and possible glancing
effects from the 13 April CME.  Mostly quiet levels are expected to
return on days two and three (19 - 20 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Apr 074
Predicted   18 Apr-20 Apr  078/079/080
90 Day Mean        17 Apr 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01