:Product: 0421RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 21 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (22-24 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours. 
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate that the Earth is
currently under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. 
Solar winds increased from around 350 km/s to 425 km/s during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
days one and two (22-23 April).  The increase in activity is due to
possible CME effects and a continued influence of the coronal hole
high speed stream.  Predominately quiet conditions are expected for
day three (24 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Apr 076
Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr  076/078/078
90 Day Mean        21 Apr 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  010/012-008/008-005/006
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01