:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 02 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares were
observed, one of which was produced by Region 1092 (N16E10). Region
1092 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cho group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new
regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 August) 
due to the arrival of the first of two CMEs observed on 01 August
(this CME was associated with the long-duration C3/Sf flare at
01/0826Z). Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 - 3 (04 - 05
August) due to the arrival of the second slower CME observed on 01
August (associated with a large filament disappearance).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 079
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  080/082/084
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  012/012-018/022-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/50
Minor storm           05/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/45/40
Minor storm           10/25/35
Major-severe storm    01/10/15