:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 03 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N15W04)
produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1092 remained a stable
Cho-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions
were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels until late in
the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels
following a sudden geomagnetic impulse (SI) at 03/1741Z (21 nT, as
measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was preceded by
the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the ACE spacecraft at
03/1656Z. Both effects were due to the arrival of a CME associated
with the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (04
August) as the current CME passage continues. Activity is forecast
to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament
disappearance). Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on day 3 (06 August) as CME effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 081
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  082/084/084
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  020/025-030/035-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           20/40/10
Major-severe storm    05/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/15/25
Minor storm           25/45/15
Major-severe storm    10/35/01