:Product: 0807RSGA.txt :Issued: 2010 Aug 07 2201 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1093 (N10E30) produced an M1/2f flare at 07/1824Z. Associated with this event were Tenflare signatures at 07/1827Z (110 sfu) and 07/1901Z (150 sfu) along with Type II (675 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with C-class flares likely from Region 1093 and 1095 (S18E19). A chance of M-class activity is possible from Region 1093. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet with an isolated chance of unsettled levels during the next three days (08 - 10 August). III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Aug 085 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 076 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01