:Product: 0809RSGA.txt :Issued: 2010 Aug 09 2201 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two B1 flares were observed during the period. New Region 1096 (N19W16) was numbered and was classified as a Bxo spot group with a beta magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. However, there is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1096. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period between 09/03-06Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (10 August) due to the expected arrival of the CME observed on SOHO EIT on 07 August. This CME was associated with the M1/2f flare at 07/1824Z. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August) due to the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected on day three (12 August). III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Aug 083 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 076 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/015-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/15 Minor storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01