:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 10 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Three B-class flares were
observed during the period, including a long-duration B8 flare at
10/1701Z from new Region 1097 (N33E71). Region 1096 (N21W33) showed 
an increase in spot count as well as areal coverage, and was
classified as a Cri group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1096.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period
possible, on day one (11 August) due to effects of the full-halo CME
observed on 07 August. Quiet levels are expected on days two and
three (12-13 August.)
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 084
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  084/084/085
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  010/012-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01