:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 12 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1098 (N14E14)
produced two low-level B-class flares during the period. No new
regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet until late on day three (15 August). Unsettled
to active levels are expected late on day three due to a coronal
hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 086
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01