:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 13 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in
the past 24 hours. New region 1099 (N17W41) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one (14 August). Unsettled to active
levels are expected on days two and three (15 -16 August) due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 084
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  005/005-007/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01