:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 14 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N18W58) produced a
C4/Sf flare at 14/1005Z with an associated CME. The STEREO-A
spacecraft observed a full-halo signature first visible on COR2 at
14/1109Z. A Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 406 km/s) was
also observed with this event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit
exceeded threshold at 14/1230Z with a peak flux of 14 pfu at
14/1245Z. The event ended at 14/1410Z. The source is believed to be
region 1099.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. The
increase in activity is in response to a coronal hole high-speed
stream on days one and two (15 - 16 August). The activity on day
three (17 August) is in response to the CME observed on 14 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 085
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  007/008-010/012-015/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01