:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 07 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. Region 1105 (N19W77)
produced a B4/Sf flare on 07/0528Z. An 11 degree filament near
N11E19 disappeared between 07/1359-1439Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event on days one and
two (08-09 September). Solar activity is expected to be very low on
day three (10 September) as Region 1105 (N19W77) rotates off the
visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. An isolated active
period occurred between 07/0900-1200Z. Solar wind velocity, as
measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated an increase to
approximately 500 km/s during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for isolated active periods during days one and two (08-09
September), due to enhanced solar wind velocity.  Day three (10
September) is expected to be quiet as the solar wind speed is
forecast to subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 076
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep  076/076/076
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/008-006/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01