:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 15 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. A B9 x-ray event
occurred at 15/1715Z. The source appeared to be a region rotating
around the southeast limb. Region 1106 (S20E18) appeared to be
slowly decaying.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (16-18 September). C-class events are likely
from the new region rotating onto the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods observed at some locations.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (16-17
September) due to possible effects from a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Day three (18 September) is expected to be quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 081
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  083/085/086
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  007/008-007/008-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01