:Product: 0917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 17 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity ranged from very low to low.  Region
1108 (S28E59) produced the largest event of the period, a C1/Sf at
17/0122Z. Additionally, Region 1108 and Region 1106 (S20W08)
produced several B-class events, along with numerous low frequency
radio activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance of moderate activity from Region 1108.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period observed at 17/0600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (18 - 20
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 082
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  085/086/086
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01