:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 18 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Both Region 1106 (S20W21)
and Region 1108 (S28E49) indicated slight growth in areal coverage
during the period, but still retained bi-polar magnetic
configurations.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. A chance of C-class activity, with a
slight chance of M-class activity, is possible for the next three
days (19 - 21 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
was observed at high latitudes at 18/0300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (19 - 20
September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods,
are expected on day three (21 September) due to a large, recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 082
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  082/082/083
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  005/005-005/005-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01