:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 24 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels during the past
24 hours.  Region 1109 (N22E41) produced several small B-class
events.  Region 1109, an Eho spot group, increased in extent and
areal coverage and maintained a beta magnetic configuration.  Region
1108 (S30W34) remained unchanged.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with C-class activity likely. A slight chance
for an M-class event exists from Region 1109.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels over the
past 24 hours due to the presence of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.  Solar wind velocities increased steadily over the
past 24 hours and ended the period near 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (25 September) due to
the continued presence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.  Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (26-27
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 083
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  084/084/084
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01