:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 27 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1109 (N22E02) has
grown slightly in white light areal coverage and remains an E-type
group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1109.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Observations
from the ACE spacecraft during the period show solar wind speeds
ranging between 450-500 km/s and the IMF Bz between +5/-5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
periods for the next three days (28-30 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 083
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep  084/084/083
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  007/007-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01