:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 03 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of three low-level B-class x-ray events: a B1 at 02/2337Z from
Region 1109 (N20W80), a B2 at 03/0438Z from Region 1110 (now behind
the west limb at N21), and a B1 at 03/1923Z from Region 1111
(N24E06). The disk was otherwise stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
generally very low, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
either of Region 1109 or 1111.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (04 October). For the second
and third days (05-06 October), mostly quiet conditions with some
unsettled periods are expected with a slight chance for isolated
active periods. The increase is forecast because of possible effects
from a weak high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 080
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  005/005-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05