:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Regions 1109 (N21W106)
and 1111 (N24W18) produced isolated low-level B-class flares.  The
visible disk was spotless. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The ACE
spacecraft indicated a solar sector boundary crossing early in the
reporting period.  Solar wind speeds have shown an increase to
around 340 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations of +6/-6 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (06 October)
with mostly quiet conditions expected for days two and three (07-08
October).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 075
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  075/075/078
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01