:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions
1112 (S19W15), 1113 (N17E50), and newly numbered 1115 (S28E63) each
produced isolated low-level B-class flares. Regions 1113 and 1115
were both H-type spots and exhibited no significant changes. Region
1112 showed minor spot growth during the period. A slow CME
(estimated plane-of-sky velocity 140 km/s) was evident in SOHO and
STEREO coronagraph images - first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 at
14/1348Z. The CME had a northwestward trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (16 - 18 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. However, ACE solar
wind data indicated a CME passage around 15/0300Z, likely associated
with the filament eruption observed on 10 October. Solar wind
changes associated with the CME passage included increased
velocities (277 to 354 km/s), increased IMF Bt (peak 09 nT at
15/0919Z), and intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum
deflection -07 nT at 15/1725Z).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for active levels, on day 1 (16 October) as the CME passage
continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during
days 2 and 3 (17 - 18 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 082
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  084/084/084
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01