:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1117 (N21W15) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest a C2.5
x-ray event at 25/2212Z.  A CME (estimated plane-of-sky velocity 375
km/s) was observed off the southwest limb, first viewed on GOES-15
SXI imagery at approximately 26/0300Z. This CME was likely
associated with a B6.5 x-ray event at 26/0311Z from Region 1115
(S31W75). The CME appeared to be earth directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for C-class events and a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1117.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the past
24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (27 - 28 October).
Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are
expected on day three (29 October) in response to the CME observed
on 26 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 086
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  084/084/084
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  007/007-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01