:Product: 1201RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Dec 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3 flare from Region 1356 (N17W76) at 30/2232Z. Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/2112Z. The events appear to originate from filament eruptions. The first off the east limb beginning at 30/1922Z and the second near the west limb beginning at 30/2046Z in SDO/AIA 171 imagery. We are currently waiting on model runs to determine the possibility of a glancing blow from these events. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day 1 (02 December) with M-class flares probabilities increasing to a chance for days 2-3 (03-04 December). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active to minor storm periods observed at high latitudes. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to be quiet to unsettled. There is still a possibility for activity from a southern polar extent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec Class M 20/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Dec 152 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-007/008-006/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 08/08/05 Minor storm 02/02/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor storm 15/16/13 Major-severe storm 08/11/07