:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S22E16)  has been the most active region on the
disk, with multiple C-class events. Region 1363 also continues to
grow in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity
(beta-gamma). New Region 1366 (N17E65) was numbered early in the
period as it rotated onto the visible disk. Multiple CMEs have been
observed in the past 24 hours, but none appear to have any Earth
directed components.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(04-06 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Slightly elevated activity was observed at high
latitudes, with an isolated period at minor storm levels, do to the
arrival of a transient CME. Signatures from the ACE spacecraft
indicated this transients arrival around 02/1800Z with a slight
increase in the lower energy protons,  an increase in solar wind
speeds coupled with elevated solar wind density, and finally an
increase in total IMF intensity around 8 nT. The Penticton 10 cm
flux is estimated today at 160 sfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(04-06 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 160
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  165/165/160
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 143
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  005/005-005/005-003/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/01/01
Minor storm           00/00/00
Major-severe storm    00/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                13/13/13
Minor storm           08/07/07
Major-severe storm    02/01/01