:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity reached moderate levels today.  An M3/Sf
flare was observed off the NE limb at 02/1746Z near N16.  As the
region rotates on the visible disk, a more detailed analysis of its
complexity can be determined.  STEREO B EUVI 195 imagery indicated a
possible CME associated with the event beginning at 02/1746Z,
however, further imagery from SOHO/LASCO will be needed to confirm.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely from the new region rotating onto the
NE limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period observed at high latitudes during the period 02/1200 -
1500Z.  Activity was due to sustained periods of southward Bz of the
interplanetary magnetic field coupled with an elevated solar wind
speed around 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled conditions on day 1 (03
March).  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 2 (04 March). 
A recurrent coronal high speed stream is expected increase
conditions to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (05 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 108
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  008/008-006/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05