:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41).  This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec.  Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period.  New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream.  Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays
X1/full halo CME.  Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 132
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  012/015-013/020-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/35/15
Major-severe storm    30/40/10