:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1432 (N14E03)
produced an M2/1N event at 14/1521Z associated with a faint CME as
visible on LASCO C2 (plane-of-sky velocity 392 km/s) with a narrow
northeast trajectory.  As of current, this CME is not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare until
Region 1429 (N19W77) rotates behind the limb.  On days 2 and 3
(16-17 March) activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a
chance for moderate flaring from Region 1432.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels reaching
active levels at high latitudes.  Correction to yesterdays summary,
the greater than 100 MeV event began at 13/1810Z, reached a peak
value of 1 PFU at 13/1905Z, and ended at 13/2255Z.  The 10 MeV
proton event greater than 100 PFU (S2-Moderate) event began at
13/1855Z, reached a peak value of 469 PFU at 13/2045Z, and dropped
below 100 PFU into S1-Minor threshold at 14/0955Z.  The proton event
is currently around 33 PFU and gradually decreasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 March.  Activity is expected
to increase to active levels on 16 March due to effects from the 13
March transient and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. 
Activity is expected to return to mostly unsettled levels on 17
March as effects from these two influences begin to wane slightly. 
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue to
decrease over the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    70/40/40
Class X    20/05/05
Proton     90/40/70
PCAF       red
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 119
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  009/015-015/020-018/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/35/20