:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1435 (S26W37) 
grew rapidly overnight ending the period as a Dro type group with
beta magnetic characteristics.  Nearby Region 1434 (S22W27) produced
an impulsive M1/Sf  flare at 17/2039Z.  This flare was accompanied
by a Type II radio sweep (1140 km/s).  A northward directed wave was
visible in SDO/AIA 193 imagery.  Region 1432 (N14W39), currently a
Cro type group with beta magnetic characteristics, produced a C1
flare at 17/0312, but was generally quiet overnight.  New Region
1437 (S34E15) was numbered today.  It and the remaining regions were
small, magnetically simple, and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare all three days (18-20
March), particularly from the vicinity of Regions 1434 and 1435.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor to major storm levels observed at high latitudes. 
This activity was in response to the continued presence of a high
speed solar wind stream.  Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE
spacecraft, remained around 650 km/s while Bz ranged between +5 and
-5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to begin at unsettled levels and increase to active to
isolated minor storm levels on Day 1 (18 March) as a CME from 15
March arrives.  Activity levels are expected to be predominantly
active on Day 2 (19 March), declining to unsettled levels on Day 3
(20 March) as effects from the CME subside.  Analysis of the M1/Sf
flare is ongoing to determine if it was associated with an
Earth-directed CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 102
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  018/025-015/020-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/05
Minor storm           20/15/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    35/25/05