:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1432 (N22W68) produced
a C1/Sf event at 19/1351Z while developing spots in an area that was
previously plage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next two days (20-21 March) until Regions 1432
and 1435 (S26W62) exit the visible disk.  Activity is expected to
decrease to very low levels with a chance for C-class activity on
day three (22 March).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.  An isolated
period of active was observed for the 0300-0600Z synoptic period. 
The enhanced activity followed what appeared to be the 15 March
transient arrival at the ACE spacecraft around 19/0315Z.  Total
field strength rose to 7nT, Bz turned southward to -7nT, wind speeds
reached up to 590 km/s, and temperature and density showed a slight
increase. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 March.  Activity
is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels for the rest of the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 102
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/15