:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
x-ray event during the period, a C3 from Region 1434 (S20W66) at
19/2204Z. The solar disk consists of six spotted regions, all of
which were relatively quiet and stable. Two new regions were
assigned today: Region 1438 (S15E69) and Region 1439 (N25W79).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for some isolated
unsettled periods for the next three days (20-22 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 100
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  095/090/085
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  006/007-007/007-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05