:Product: 0321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were four C-class flares
with three of these originating from the newly emerging Region 1440
(S26W24).  The largest was a C2 flare that occurred at 1252Z. 
Region 1440 showed development throughout the day and appears to
have a small magnetic delta configuration in the trailing portion of
the group.  There was a back-sided full halo CME from old Region
1429 that was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 21/0736Z. 
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with an slight chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 1440.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (22-24 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 100
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  007/007-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05