:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1440 (S25W38) produced
todays only C-class flare at 22/1750Z.  This region appears to be
decaying and currently shows a beta-gamma configuration. Three new
sunspot groups were numbered today: Region 1441 (S27W56), Region
1442 (N13E49) and Region 1443 (N16E62). All of these regions were
small, quiet, and  stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1440.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period
from 22/1800Z to 22/2100Z.  Solar wind data appeared to indicate a
solar sector boundary crossing at about 22/1930Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 102
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05