:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Newly numbered Region
1445 (S24E76) rotated onto the solar disk and produced an M1 flare
at 23/1940Z as well as a C6 flare at 23/1639Z.  Region 1444 (N21E37)
was numbered overnight, but is small and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, mainly due to additional activity from Region 1445.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially unsettled, but decreased to quiet
levels after 23/0300Z.  The elevated activity was caused by a solar
sector boundary crossing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 105
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05