:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A long duration C7/Sf flare
was observed from Region 1445 (S26E62) at 24/0901Z.  This flare was
accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (587 km/s).  A slow, weak CME
was later observed in STEREO-B COR2 imagery at 24/1025Z; plane of
sky speed was estimated to be about 400 km/s.  This CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.  A backsided CME was observed in
LASCO/C2 at 24/0036Z imagery with an estimated plane of sky speed of
700 km/s.  It appeared to originate from the vicinity of Old Region
1429.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  Active
levels were reached during 24/06-09Z  after a prolonged period of
southward Bz.  The remainder of the day saw quiet to unsettled
levels.  The solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
increased throughout the period, ending around 450 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(25-27 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 103
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  110/120/120
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05