:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels.  Region 1444
(N21W17) produced a C5/1f flare at 27/0308Z.  Region 1442 (N12W13)
produced a C2 flare at 26/2338Z and a C1/Sf flare at 27/0430Z.  SOHO
LASCO observed a full asymmetric halo CME at 26/2312Z which was
associated with Type II & Type IV radio sweeps.  This CME was
determined to be a backsided event and should not be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.  Old Region 1429 (N19,
L=299) is expected to return to the solar disk midday on 29 March,
which should increase M-class flare probabilities.  New Region 1447
(S25W55) was numbered today and is a small C-type spot group.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  ACE data
indicate a solar sector boundary crossing during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 March to 29
March, due to a favorably positioned negative polarity coronal hole.
Quiet levels are expected on the third day (30 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    30/35/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 106
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar  110/120/120
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  013/015-007/010-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/05
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/35/15
Major-severe storm    50/30/05