:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of a
few low-level C-class flares; the largest was a C3/1f at 0443Z from
Region 1470 (S15E21). Region 1470 decayed to spotless plage during
the period. Region 1471 (S21E34) is the largest group on the disk
with 310 millionths area but only managed to produce B-level
activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (02-04 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (02-04 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 110
Predicted   02 May-04 May  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        01 May 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05