:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events were observed during the period with
the largest event being a C2/Sf x-ray flare from new Region 1475
(N05E61). Even though Region 1475 is magnetically classified as an
alpha group, it remains responsible for a majority of todays
activity. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the disk,
with many regions stable or in a waning phase. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (04 - 06 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 -
06 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 114
Predicted   04 May-06 May  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        03 May 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01