:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The background x-ray levels, as measured by the GOES-15
spacecraft, have shown a gradual increase to C-class levels. This
increase is attributed to a new unnumbered sunspot region rotating
onto the northeast limb. At the time of the report, SDO
intensitygram images showed only a part of this new region. Due to
the limb location, actual sunspot and magnetic classification has
yet to be determined. The other sunspot regions on the disk remained
rather stable for the past 24 hours. A CME, first observed in STEREO
Ahead COR2 imagery at 04/0309Z, was determined to not be Earth
directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (05 - 07 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have
remained at background levels, below 400 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 -
07 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 114
Predicted   05 May-07 May  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        04 May 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01